region_name='Italy_pred';

%define initial conditions
N = 60e6;         %population Italy

%define time
%time = 0:1:110;

E00 = (1/N)*10^5;
S0 = 10^5-E00;
x0 = [S0 E00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0];
        
%epidemic start: 27 January
%after 24 days (20 February): first covid-19 patient
%after 25 days (21 February): red areas in Lombardia e Veneto
%after 28 days (24 February): school closure in Emilia-Romagna, Friuli-Venezia Giulia,
%Liguria, Lombardia, Marche, Piemonte, Veneto
%after 25 days (21 February) PPE
%after 38 days (5 March): school closure in the rest of Italy
%after 41 days (8 March): lockdown northern of italy + social distancing
%after 43 days (10 March): total lockdown
%after 98 days (4 May 2020): first reopenings
%after 112 days (18 May 2020): second lockdown release
%after 140 days (15 June 2020): apertura discoteche
%after 203 days (17 August 2020): chiusura discoteche
%after 231 days (14 September 2020): apertura scuole

Tlock=[25 28 38 43 98 112 140 203 231];